美股Q4财报季启幕：汇丰与花旗一致看好“超预期”，IT板块仍是增长引擎

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings season for the S&P 500 index is expected to show a slowdown in earnings growth, but surprises may still occur, particularly in the technology sector, which is projected to lead with double-digit growth [1][2][11]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Market consensus anticipates an 8% growth in earnings per share (EPS) for Q4, a decrease from previous quarters that saw double-digit growth [2][3]. - HSBC notes that despite the expected slowdown, past predictions have often underestimated actual earnings, with profit margins expected to slightly increase [2][3]. - Citigroup forecasts that the S&P 500 companies will exceed earnings expectations by approximately 4% in Q4 2025, with EPS reaching $275 [1][11]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology sector is expected to achieve a year-over-year EPS growth of about 26%, while other sectors like financials, industrials, and utilities are anticipated to experience significant slowdowns [3][11]. - Financial sector faces a challenging comparison base but remains optimistic about its fundamentals [3][11]. - Communication services and energy sectors are projected to have the highest potential for upward revisions in earnings expectations [11][14]. Group 3: Market Concentration - The concentration of earnings among the "Magnificent Seven" (Mag 7) companies is increasing, with these firms accounting for 26% of S&P 500 earnings and approximately 40% when including technology stocks [5][6]. - The trend of rising concentration is expected to continue, particularly as large-scale data center operators are projected to account for 30-34% of total capital expenditures by 2025-2026 [5]. Group 4: Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Factors - Investors are particularly focused on forward guidance for 2026 and beyond, with Citigroup projecting an EPS of $320 for 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of $312 [1][11]. - Key macroeconomic factors such as labor productivity, industrial production, and stable inflation dynamics are expected to support upward revisions in earnings forecasts [11][14]. - The analysis indicates that maintaining a strong productivity growth rate is crucial for sustaining earnings growth in the S&P 500 [14].