首席经济学家眼中的2026年大类资产图景：多极秩序与宽松拐点下的资产再定价

Group 1: Global Asset Revaluation - A new round of asset revaluation is underway, focusing on gold, RMB assets, stocks, and emerging markets due to a shift in global macroeconomic conditions [1] - The transition from a unipolar to a multipolar international order and the renewed divergence in the macro cycles of China and the U.S. are driving this revaluation [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a key variable for global asset pricing, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts and a return to balance sheet expansion by 2026 [2][5] - The relationship between unemployment rates and inflation suggests that the Fed is likely to maintain a dovish stance, putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index [5] Group 3: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold is transitioning from a traditional safe-haven asset to a core anchor in the new asset pricing system, with expectations of significant price increases [9] - Silver and certain base metals are also seen as having potential due to their historical correlation with global liquidity [9] Group 4: Emerging Markets Valuation - Emerging markets are viewed as undervalued, with their manufacturing output surpassing that of developed economies, yet their asset valuations have not fully adjusted to this reality [12] - The ongoing transition to a multipolar world is not yet reflected in asset prices, presenting future investment opportunities [12] Group 5: RMB Assets and Stock Market - The RMB is expected to appreciate steadily through 2026, with potential cumulative gains exceeding 30% in the long term, influenced by the Fed's rate cuts and rising price levels in China [13] - The stock market outlook is positive, with expectations of a peak in A-shares in the second half of the year, driven by economic recovery and price increases [15]