Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over U.S. monetary policy independence, leading to increased demand for precious metals as a low-risk alternative to the dollar [3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of January 12, 2026, the spot silver price is at $84.15 per ounce, with a trading range between $79.94 and $84.60 during the day [1][2]. - Other silver-related prices include silver T+D at 20,909 yuan per kilogram and paper silver at 18.897 yuan per gram [2]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Key events driving the current market include ongoing unrest in Iran and potential U.S. intervention, which heightens geopolitical risks [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing political pressure, raising concerns about the independence of U.S. monetary policy [3]. - KCM Trade's chief market analyst notes that in a low-interest-rate environment, the appeal of non-yielding precious metals like silver is increasing, with expectations of continued demand from central banks [3]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for Fed rate cuts to June and September 2026, indicating a significant delay from previous expectations [3]. - JPMorgan no longer anticipates a rate cut in January 2026, now predicting a rate hike in Q3 2027 [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Technical analysis indicates that silver prices remain in an upward channel, suggesting a bullish outlook [4]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 70.66, indicating overbought conditions and potential for short-term consolidation [4]. - Key resistance levels include the historical high of $85.87 and the upper boundary of the upward channel around $88.40 [4]. - Initial support is at the 9-day EMA of $77.94, followed by the lower boundary of the upward channel at approximately $76.40 [4].
1月12日白银晚评：地缘政治风险+美储独立性担忧 银价强势走涨
Jin Tou Wang·2026-01-12 09:30