【2026年汇市展望】以“韧性”穿越风暴 新加坡元“避风港”属性亮眼

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Singapore dollar (SGD) demonstrated resilience amidst global financial market turbulence, characterized by a strong dollar, geopolitical shifts, and divergent monetary policies. The SGD is expected to continue serving as a "stabilizer" in the global currency market in 2026, despite anticipated economic slowdowns and monetary easing conditions [1]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The SGD exhibited a "weak to strong" trend against the USD in 2025, reflecting both the dollar's cyclical effects and Singapore's economic resilience. The year can be divided into three phases: 1. In Q1, the SGD faced pressure due to trade concerns and failed Fed rate cut expectations, with the USD/SGD reaching a high of 1.3751 on January 13. The SGD only depreciated by about 2.3%, outperforming other Asian currencies [2]. 2. In Q2, the SGD rebounded sharply as US trade policies were less aggressive than expected and local economic data exceeded forecasts, with the SGD/USD dropping to a low of 1.2698 by July 1, marking a ten-year high [2]. 3. In the second half, particularly Q4, the SGD became a preferred safe haven amid rising geopolitical risks, ending the year with a cumulative appreciation of approximately 6.14% against the USD [3]. Economic Performance - Singapore's economy outperformed initial pessimistic forecasts in 2025, achieving a GDP growth of 4.8%, significantly above the predicted range of 1% to 3% and higher than the 4.4% growth in 2024. The fourth quarter saw a robust growth rate of 5.7% [4]. - Inflation concerns were effectively managed, with core inflation rates dropping to a range of 0.5% to 1%, aided by declining import costs and government subsidies in healthcare and transportation [4]. Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) implemented its first policy shift in five years in 2025, slightly lowering the slope of the nominal effective exchange rate policy in January and April, signaling a transition from "anti-inflation" to "growth preservation" [5]. - MAS's communication strategy was successful, maintaining market confidence in the SGD as a "hard currency" while allowing for flexibility in monetary policy adjustments based on economic data [5]. Outlook for 2026 - The SGD is expected to experience a "stable yet rising" trend with reduced volatility in 2026, influenced by complex variables beyond just Fed interest rate changes. The anticipated depreciation of the USD due to continued Fed rate cuts could enhance the SGD's attractiveness [6]. - Geopolitical factors and Singapore's strong fiscal position will continue to attract safe-haven investments, with the government’s robust budget and substantial reserves providing a buffer against external shocks [7]. - The Ministry of Trade and Industry forecasts a return to normal growth rates for Singapore's GDP in 2026, estimating growth between 1% and 3%, with inflation projected to remain manageable [8]. Recommendations for Businesses and Investors - For import-oriented companies, the SGD's appreciation may lower dollar-denominated procurement costs, suggesting an increase in spot foreign exchange purchases. Export-oriented firms should be cautious of profit erosion due to SGD appreciation and consider using derivatives to hedge against currency fluctuations [9]. - Investors are encouraged to view SGD assets as a defensive holding in the context of global de-dollarization, especially as US Treasury yields decline, enhancing the relative attractiveness of Singaporean assets [9].