政策惊雷破仓海，镍途跌宕问来年 ——2025 复盘与 2026 掘金指南

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market in 2025 experienced a "wide fluctuation" characterized by an "N-shaped" price trend, driven by the interplay between "Indonesian policy expectations" and "global high inventory realities" [4][10]. Price Trend Summary - In the first quarter, optimistic market sentiment was fueled by Indonesia's tightening policy signals and China's "expanding domestic demand" strategy, pushing prices from 128,000 CNY/ton to a peak of 135,000 CNY/ton by mid-March [5]. - The second quarter saw a decline in prices due to high inventory and weak demand, with prices dropping from around 130,000 CNY/ton to approximately 122,000 CNY/ton by the end of June [5]. - The third quarter was marked by a narrow price range of 120,000 to 124,000 CNY/ton, with market sentiment remaining pessimistic due to high inventory and weak demand [5]. - In the fourth quarter, prices surged to 138,000 CNY/ton, driven by expectations of a significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel mining quotas and global liquidity easing [5][10]. Supply Side Overview - The global nickel supply market in 2025 exhibited an overall surplus, with significant production growth driven primarily by Indonesia's capacity expansion [8]. - The supply dynamics evolved through three phases: initial expectations of loosened supply due to increased mining quotas, mid-year cost pressures from resource tax hikes, and a late-year shift in expectations towards potential quota reductions [8]. - Indonesia's quota management significantly influenced global supply, with a dual model of domestic production and imports from the Philippines [8]. Demand Side Overview - The global nickel consumption market in 2025 showed moderate growth, with demand expected to reach 3.53 to 3.6 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 5% [9]. - Demand dynamics shifted, with traditional stainless steel applications experiencing weak growth, while high-end alloys and special steels became the main drivers of demand growth [9]. - High-purity nickel plate demand remained resilient, particularly in high-nickel battery applications, despite challenges from competing technologies [9]. Market Dynamics Summary - The nickel market's volatility in 2025 highlighted the critical role of policy expectations and financial attributes, with prices reflecting not only current supply-demand conditions but also future narratives [7][10]. - The end-of-year price surge was primarily driven by fears of supply contraction, supported by macro liquidity conditions [6][10].