长江有色：12日镍价上涨 现货挺价明显电池企业观望

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have strengthened due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, industry trends, and geopolitical disturbances, reflecting a complex interplay of liquidity expectations, supply constraints, and geopolitical uncertainties [2] Supply Side - Indonesia's policy changes are the biggest variable affecting the supply landscape, with rumors suggesting a potential 34% reduction in nickel ore production quotas by 2026, which could significantly alter the global nickel supply-demand balance [2] - Indonesia's proposed revision of mining taxes to classify by-product cobalt as a separate taxable item may increase nickel smelting production costs, providing price support from the cost side [2] - Although LME nickel inventories are high, the availability of specific brands and grades for delivery is relatively tight, leading to higher spot premiums and indicating that immediate supply is not as loose as the absolute inventory figures suggest [2] Demand Side - Nickel demand is driven by two core areas: stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of global nickel consumption, and the rapidly growing demand from the new energy battery sector, particularly high-nickel ternary batteries [3] - The aerospace and military sectors also contribute to demand through the use of nickel-based superalloys, adding a high-value growth segment to the market [3] - The nickel industry chain is characterized by high upstream concentration, technology-driven midstream, and diversified downstream demand, with Indonesia controlling about 70% of global supply [3] Market Outlook - Short-term nickel price trends will be primarily influenced by expectations surrounding Indonesia's production reduction policies, alongside geopolitical factors and resilient demand, suggesting prices may remain strong but volatile [4] - High global visible inventories will impose substantial constraints on the upward price potential, with future market focus on the implementation and effectiveness of Indonesia's policies and the path for inventory digestion [4]