国投证券：“天量”是否一定“天价”？

Core Insights - The A-share market's total trading volume exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan on January 12, 2026, setting a new historical record, surpassing the previous high on October 8, 2024 [1][18] - The report discusses the "massive volume and price" phenomenon, which suggests that a significant trading volume may indicate a potential price peak, emphasizing the need for careful observation of market conditions [1][5][22] - Current market conditions show increased trading activity, but the sustainability of this trend and the alignment with fundamental support need further monitoring [19][22] Volume and Price Analysis - "Massive volume" typically indicates a potential price peak, where if the volume does not continue to increase, it may lead to a divergence between volume and price, putting pressure on bullish trends [5][22] - Historical analysis shows that not all significant price turning points are accompanied by massive volume, indicating that volume and price do not always correlate [5][22] - Key factors to observe include the presence of real external capital entering the market, significant changes in fundamental expectations, and signs of "irrational exuberance" in market sentiment [5][22] Market Trends - The current market trend remains favorable for bulls, but after rapid increases, the market typically requires a period of consolidation and hesitation before moving upward again [6][20][23] - The market may be entering a phase of consolidation, but there is still potential for it to challenge previous highs based on trend analysis [6][20][23] - The report does not focus on the financing balance, which also reached a historical high, due to a lack of consensus on whether it has reached a phase limit similar to that of October 8, 2024 [2][19]