国内格局：经济分化与政策定调下的债市供需

Economic Overview - The economic divergence has become more pronounced since Q3, with rapid declines in investment and retail sales, while social financing, exports, and industrial value-added still maintain robust growth [1] - Retail sales growth for categories previously benefiting from subsidies, such as home appliances, has sharply decreased from over 50% in May 2025 to around -20% in October 2025, indicating significant policy impact on data [1] Financial Sector Insights - Excluding government bonds, social financing has shown a year-on-year decline, with current RMB loans and social financing (excluding government bonds) both dropping below 7% [1] - The structure of social financing supply is changing, with bonds contributing to 40% of new social financing in 2025, a significant increase from the historical contribution of no more than 30% [1] Bond Market Analysis - The supply-demand pressure in the long bond market is expected to become evident in Q1 2026, with a concentrated issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds before the Two Sessions [2] - A total net financing scale of 3 trillion yuan from special refinancing and local government bonds may further strain current market regulatory indicators [2] - Q1 or Q2 2026 is anticipated to present an excellent bond allocation opportunity, with strong attractiveness of bond yields compared to other asset classes [2] Long-term Bond Outlook - The outlook for long bonds in 2026 is not overly pessimistic, as new policies may emerge to address supply-demand imbalances and support interest rate normalization [3] - The ten-year government bond yield is currently close to the reasonable range of 1.75%-1.85%, indicating relatively low risk at this absolute level [3] - The ten-year government bond has shown the smallest yield adjustment in 2025, reflecting its strong policy significance and long-term allocation value [3] Investment Strategy - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted for its core value, tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange ten-year government bond index and offering high liquidity [4] - The first or second quarter of 2026 is identified as the optimal allocation timing for the ten-year government bond, which is suitable for long-term investment and liquidity management [4]