洪灝：2026年正是逆命改运时，市场正处在35年大周期顶峰，各种被遗忘的资产开始疯涨，会诞生一个伟大的泡沫

Core Viewpoint - The market is at the peak of a 35-year cycle, and 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year where forgotten assets will surge, potentially creating a significant bubble [1][50]. Group 1: Interest Rate and Inflation - A continued interest rate cut in January is highly probable, which could lead to a surge in precious metals if the U.S. long-term inflation expectations remain uncontrolled [4][52]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased from approximately $9.1 trillion to just over $6 trillion, impacting liquidity and potentially leading to further rate cuts [15][59]. Group 2: Gold and Silver Analysis - Gold has formed a standard "cup and handle" pattern since 2011, with a 99% probability of price increase once this pattern is established [4][21]. - The fair value of gold is estimated to be around $4,500, indicating it is currently in a reasonable valuation range [5][27]. - Silver has also formed a 60-year giant "cup and handle" pattern, suggesting that its price has not yet reached its peak [7][30]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - If gold prices do not decline, other commodities are expected to rise, as various gold-related ratios remain at historical lows [7][72]. - The current market conditions, characterized by abundant liquidity, are likely to lead to a significant bubble by 2026, coinciding with the peak of the 35-year cycle [10][54]. - The relationship between global liquidity and asset prices indicates that silver's price is expected to continue rising over the next 3 to 6 months [32][77].