NCE平台:BTC挖矿难度变动与行业盈利展望

Core Insights - Bitcoin mining difficulty experienced a slight decrease in its first adjustment of 2026, dropping to 146.4 trillion, reflecting a phase of network hash rate fluctuations and providing a window for the mining sector facing long-term operational pressures to observe industry turning points [1][4][5] - The next difficulty adjustment is expected on January 22, 2026, with projections indicating a potential increase to 148.20 trillion, as the average block time is currently 9.88 minutes, slightly faster than the target of 10 minutes, suggesting an automatic adjustment mechanism is at play [1][5] Mining Environment - In 2025, mining difficulty peaked at 155.9 trillion, marking a challenging year for miners due to global macroeconomic fluctuations and adverse financial market conditions [2][5] - The halving event in April 2024 led to a 50% reduction in block rewards, significantly squeezing profit margins and pushing many mining companies to the brink of survival [2][5] - The hash price, a key indicator of expected revenue per unit of computing power, fell below the breakeven point in November 2025, dropping to below $35, which is the lowest in years, forcing miners to decide whether to shut down operations [2][5] Market Dynamics - The initial difficulty reduction in 2026, while numerically small, indicates that some high-cost mining operations are being forced to exit due to profit exhaustion, serving as a signal of market self-clearing [3][6] - This adjustment reflects the resilience testing of the mining industry after extreme profitability challenges, and for long-term investors, the changes in hash rate structure and difficulty cycles will be crucial indicators of the underlying support strength in the cryptocurrency market [3][6]