李迅雷：股指连阳，“春季躁动”背后的逻辑

Group 1 - The core narrative of the A-share market has shifted from "growth" to "competitiveness" since 2021, influenced by external factors such as the Trump administration's impact on international order [44][45] - The market increasingly believes in China's long-term competitiveness in key sectors like AI, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing, leading to rising expectations for perpetual growth rates [44][45] - The A-share market's pricing logic is now more focused on the long-term competitiveness of leading companies rather than immediate economic pressures, indicating a decoupling from traditional macroeconomic indicators [45][46] Group 2 - The current economic pressures include a slowdown in real estate, stagnant income growth, and weak consumer confidence, yet the competitiveness of Chinese companies in high-end manufacturing and AI is improving [45][46] - The market's valuation is driven by the long-term success of leading firms in global competition, rather than current economic challenges, suggesting a dual narrative where economic stress and corporate strength coexist [45][46] - The historical context shows that market performance can diverge from economic fundamentals, as seen in past examples like the U.S. stock market during World War II and China's market from 2000 to 2005 [37][40][41] Group 3 - The investment logic has shifted towards AI, electricity, and critical resources, with capital expenditures in these areas growing rapidly, although they have limited impact on household income [52][53] - The relationship between corporate competitiveness and household income growth is becoming more differentiated, reflecting a broader economic transformation [53][54] - The ongoing structural changes in the economy are leading to a "temperature difference" where corporate profits rise while household income growth remains subdued [54][56]