ATFX:地缘局势带来新的风险溢价 黄金直接跳涨至4600美元新纪录

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a record high of $4600, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. employment data released last week showed mixed results, reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at least twice this year [4][9]. - The employment report indicated that job growth in December was below expectations, which supports the notion of continued rate cuts to stimulate the economy [4][9]. Group 2: Market Trends - Gold prices surged by 65% in 2025, marking the largest increase in nearly half a century, with fund managers betting on further price rises due to factors like declining interest rates and geopolitical tensions [4][9]. - UBS Asset Management noted a growing interest from pension and insurance funds in gold, predicting that by 2025, some funds that previously did not hold gold will allocate about 5% of their strategic asset allocation to it [4][9]. Group 3: Investment Dynamics - Despite the record high gold prices, U.S. investors hold a low proportion of gold, with gold ETFs accounting for only 0.17% of U.S. private financial portfolios, down 6 basis points from the peak in 2012 [5][10]. - Central bank purchases are expected to be a significant driver for further gold price increases, with projections of monthly purchases reaching approximately 80 tons by 2026 [10]. - Central banks rarely sell their gold holdings, indicating that institutional demand is viewed as a stable support for gold prices, with rapid inflows from both institutions and retail investors contributing to the price surge [11].