‘Worse than a recession’: Ray Dalio said Trump’s agenda could push America to conditions ‘like the 30s’. Was he right?

Economic Growth and Concerns - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by an estimated 1.9% in 2025, despite ongoing concerns about economic stability [1] - Employment growth in 2025 was weak, with approximately 584,000 jobs added, marking the slowest annual job creation outside of recession periods in over two decades [6] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased to around 4.4%, but sectors like manufacturing and retail experienced job losses, while health care and service industries saw gains [6] Tariffs and Global Economic Impact - The implementation of tariffs has been described as highly disruptive, akin to "throwing rocks into the production system," which could lead to significant economic chaos [1][4] - There is a fear that the U.S. could become isolated as major trading partners form cross-border agreements that exclude the U.S. [4] - The combination of tariffs, high debt levels, and a rising superpower challenging the existing order could lead to profound changes in the global economic landscape [3] Historical Context and Predictions - Current economic conditions are compared to the 1930s, with concerns about a potential breakdown of the current monetary order [2][4] - Experts predict that the labor market may soften further in 2026, with unemployment potentially rising to an average of 4.5% [7] - The founder of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, has expressed concerns that the current economic agenda could lead to outcomes worse than a recession [5]