Cantor Fitzgerald Calls Okta a Contrarian Value Opportunity With 30% Upside

Core Viewpoint - Okta Inc. is considered a strong investment opportunity in the software infrastructure sector, characterized as a "contrarian value play" by analyst Jonathan Ruykhaver, who maintains an Overweight rating and a price target of $115 [1]. Valuation and Market Position - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-FY 27 sales multiple of 4.4x, significantly lower than the peer average of 9.8x, indicating a steep valuation discount that Ruykhaver believes is unwarranted due to Okta's strong execution and fundamentals [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing importance of identity in security, with identity implicated in 80-90% of breaches, suggesting a favorable market trend for Okta [2]. Bullish and Bearish Perspectives - Bullish arguments highlight Okta's improving execution and the strategic shift towards independent identity platforms, with expectations of Net Revenue Retention (NRR) moving towards 110%+ over time [2]. - Bearish concerns focus on competitive dynamics and potential pushback from established players like CyberArk, Microsoft, and SailPoint, particularly regarding Okta's expansion into adjacent identity categories [3]. Impact of AI on Identity Security - The rise of AI agents is making identity management increasingly critical to security, which supports a positive outlook for Okta. The early engagement from over 100 customers for AI-related products indicates a potential new Total Addressable Market (TAM) [4]. - The combination of improving execution, a strengthening product portfolio, and a discounted valuation suggests that Okta is due for a re-rating as its growth story unfolds [4]. Company Overview - Okta Inc. is a cloud-based identity and access management company that enables secure connections for employees, customers, and partners to applications and systems [5].