Vodafone Group(US:VOD) ETTelecom.com·2026-01-12 10:36Core Viewpoint - The decision to freeze Vodafone Idea's (Vi) adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues provides temporary relief, but the company faces significant challenges with its spectrum dues amounting to approximately ₹1.22 lakh crore, limiting the government's options for further assistance [6][2]. Financial Obligations - Vodafone Idea owes approximately ₹1.22 lakh crore in spectrum dues, with scheduled payments of ₹2,500 crore in FY26, ₹7,000 crore in FY27, ₹15,000 crore in FY28, and ₹27,000 crore from FY29 to FY32 [6][5]. - The frozen AGR dues total ₹87,695 crore, with a payment plan requiring Vi to pay ₹124 crore annually from March 2026 to March 2031, followed by ₹100 crore annually from March 2032 to March 2035, and the remaining dues in equal installments from March 2036 to March 2041 [8][5]. Revenue and Growth Projections - Analysts project that Vi's EBITDA could reach ₹900 crore in FY26, ₹1,250 crore in FY27, ₹1,600 crore in FY28, and ₹1,940 crore in FY29, contingent on a 15% tariff hike by mid-2026 and a 1% annual subscriber growth [6][5]. - To meet cash outflows from internal accruals, Vi needs its average revenue per user (ARPU) to rise to approximately ₹340 by FY29, compared to ₹169 in 2QFY26 [6][5]. Strategic Considerations - An equity fundraise could allow the government to convert Vi's spectrum dues into equity, but this would require a substantial amount of fundraising, potentially leading to significant dilution for minority shareholders [3][6]. - The upcoming spectrum auctions starting in 2029 may increase Vi's net debt, and it is likely that the company will not re-acquire all its current holdings due to a reduced market share [3][6]. Future Outlook - The telecom department plans to form a committee to reassess the AGR dues, and its decision will be final, which could impact Vi's ability to secure a long-pending debt fundraise of ₹25,000 crore necessary for capital expenditure plans [8][6].