ATFX汇市前瞻:美国褐皮书与CPI数据双双来袭 黄金汇市或加剧波动

Group 1: Beige Book Insights - The Federal Reserve will release the first Beige Book of 2026 on January 12, which will provide insights into macroeconomic changes across various U.S. regions since the last report on November 26, 2025 [1][10] - The Beige Book is published eight times a year and is based on interviews with business contacts, economists, and market experts, compiled by twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks [2][10] - Observers analyze the wording changes in the Beige Book to gauge the U.S. economy; if the upcoming report indicates an increase in regions reporting economic decline, it may suggest ongoing economic weakness [2][10] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation Analysis - The Beige Book will include specific analyses of the labor market and inflation; the previous report noted a slight decline in employment and weakened labor demand in about half of the regions, alongside moderate price increases [11] - Changes in the Beige Book's commentary on the labor market and inflation could influence the Federal Reserve's willingness to continue lowering interest rates [11] Group 3: December CPI Data - The U.S. Labor Department will release the December unadjusted CPI year-on-year data on January 9, which is significant as it is the first month unaffected by the government shutdown [3][12] - The previous unadjusted CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, with expectations for December remaining stable; the core CPI year-on-year was previously 2.6%, with a forecast of 2.7% [6][15] - Historical data shows that the CPI had been running high at 2.8% to 3% until November, when it dropped to 2.6%, indicating a trend of weakening inflation [15] Group 4: PPI and Future Inflation Expectations - The PPI data for November will be released on January 10, which serves as a leading indicator for CPI; however, its predictive power is limited as it is released after the CPI data [15] - Current expectations suggest that if inflation remains weak, the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts, potentially starting in March with a total of three 25 basis point cuts throughout the year [15] Group 5: Oil Inventory Reports - The EIA will release its monthly short-term energy outlook report on January 10, coinciding with OPEC's monthly oil market report [16][19] - The EIA report is based on U.S. crude oil market supply and demand data, while OPEC's report is based on production data from OPEC+ member countries, providing insights into the international oil price outlook [19] - The situation has become more complex due to U.S. policies forcing Venezuelan oil to be sold exclusively to the U.S., impacting OPEC+ supply statistics and member countries' production decisions [19]