黄力晨:地缘风险持续升级 黄金上涨再创新高

Core Viewpoint - The overall direction for gold is bullish, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank buying [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - On January 12, gold prices were expected to rise due to the anticipation of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, as indicated by weak U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll report showed a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, but only 50,000 new jobs were added, reflecting a weak labor market [2][5]. - Geopolitical events, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and potential actions against Iran, have led to increased safe-haven demand for gold, contributing to its price increase [2][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices fluctuated between $4,460 and $4,480 before breaking through to $4,517, then retracing to $4,511 at the close [1][4]. - On the following Monday, gold opened higher, reaching a new historical high of $4,601 before stabilizing around $4,590 [1][4]. - Key support levels are identified at $4,560 and $4,550, while resistance is noted at $4,600 and the upper Bollinger Band at $4,680 [3][6].