Business Insider·2026-01-12 09:01Core Viewpoint - The era of Big Tech transforming small investments into substantial profits is coming to an end, primarily due to the impact of AI on business models and return on invested capital (ROIC) [1][3]. Group 1: Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) - ROIC is highlighted as the most critical metric for AI industry investors, emphasizing its importance over revenue growth, hiring, or market size [1][2]. - Historically, software companies enjoyed high ROIC, but as they transition to capital-intensive hardware models, ROIC is expected to decline, which could negatively affect stock prices in the long term [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of AI on Big Tech - AI is driving major companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta away from asset-light software models towards capital-intensive operations involving data centers, chips, and energy [3][6]. - Despite the potential for AI to expand the addressable market for Big Tech, the anticipated decline in ROIC may exert downward pressure on stock prices for years [3][6]. Group 3: Comparisons to Historical Events - The current AI boom is compared to the late-1990s dot-com bubble, with OpenAI being referred to as the "Netscape of our time," suggesting a potential for a similar market correction [5]. - Burry's hedge fund has made significant bets against AI companies like Nvidia and Palantir Technologies, indicating skepticism about their long-term profitability [5]. Group 4: Financial Viability of AI Investments - Leading AI companies are heavily investing in infrastructure to support their operations, but they have yet to demonstrate significant profit returns from their AI products [6]. - There are concerns that if the return on investment does not exceed the cost of investment, the economic value added will be negligible, raising alarms about a potential bubble in the AI sector [7].