黄金 、白银，创纪录大涨！

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a significant surge on January 12, with both gold and silver prices reaching historical highs due to multiple influencing factors, including concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][6]. Price Movements - On January 12, London spot gold prices peaked at $4601.38 per ounce, marking the first time it surpassed the $4600 per ounce threshold, with a daily increase exceeding 2% [3]. - COMEX gold futures also reached a record high of $4612.7 per ounce, closing at $4601.9 per ounce [3]. - London spot silver prices hit $84.606 per ounce, breaking the $84 per ounce mark with a daily increase of over 6% [5]. - COMEX silver futures peaked at $84.69 per ounce, also showing a daily rise of over 6% [5]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures reached a high of 1031.3 yuan per gram, closing at 1026.28 yuan per gram, up 2.57% [5]. - Shanghai silver futures saw a remarkable increase, peaking at 20998 yuan per kilogram, closing at 20945 yuan per kilogram, with a daily surge of 14.42% [5]. Driving Factors - The surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to three main factors: concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the risk of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran [6][7]. - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has heightened market volatility and is seen as a warning signal regarding the future policy stance of the Fed [6][8]. - Expectations of loose monetary policy are expected to lower U.S. Treasury yields and market interest rates, thereby increasing investment demand for gold [7]. Market Outlook - While the long-term potential for gold prices remains, short-term volatility is anticipated, with analysts suggesting that the investigation into Powell may accelerate existing upward trends rather than create a temporary spike [8]. - Factors supporting long-term gold price increases include continued central bank purchases, the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed, and the erosion of dollar credit due to U.S. fiscal debt issues [9]. - Silver prices are expected to maintain upward momentum due to strong industrial demand, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, despite potential supply constraints [9]. Short-term Risks - Analysts caution that short-term price volatility may increase, with risks including uncertainty around the timing and pace of Fed rate cuts, crowded long positions in the gold market, and potential tightening of global liquidity [9][10]. - Specific risks for silver include tight short-term liquidity and potential underperformance in industrial demand [10].