Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-01-12 12:12Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a significant surge, with COMEX gold surpassing $4600 per ounce and Shanghai silver futures rising by 14%, driven by concerns over Federal Reserve independence, geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold purchases, and de-dollarization trends [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 12, COMEX gold futures reached a peak of $4612 per ounce, while COMEX silver hit $84.69 per ounce, with a peak intraday increase of over 6% [2]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures peaked at 1031 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose by 14%, closing at 20945 yuan per kilogram, with all seven distant month contracts hitting the limit [2]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw all six base metal futures contracts close higher, with LME tin and copper rising approximately 5% and 2%, respectively [5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including the investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is seen as a long-term threat to the Fed's independence, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions and central banks' continuous gold accumulation [2][6]. - The U.S. labor department reported a lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls for December, which, combined with a declining unemployment rate and a weakening dollar, provided new support for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Risk Signals - High volatility risks are evident, with global futures exchanges frequently intervening and increasing trading margins for precious metals [3]. - The recent announcement from the Shanghai Gold Exchange highlighted significant price fluctuations and rising uncertainties, prompting a warning for members to monitor market changes closely [3]. Group 4: ETF Adjustments - To manage high inflows, gold ETFs have begun to limit subscriptions, with E Fund's gold ETF announcing a suspension of subscriptions starting January 16, aimed at protecting holder interests and ensuring stable fund operations [8]. - The adjustment in subscription terms includes raising the minimum subscription unit and streamlining the physical redemption contracts, which is expected to mitigate tracking errors due to premium discrepancies [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the ongoing central bank gold purchases, combined with the irreversible trend of global monetary expansion and de-dollarization, will continue to support the upward trajectory of precious metals [7]. - Bloomberg Commodity Index's adjustment of gold and silver weightings is expected to create selling pressure, particularly on silver, which may experience greater volatility due to its smaller market size [9].