首席经济学家眼中的2026年大类资产图景

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment is entering a critical phase, with a shift from a unipolar to a multipolar order, leading to a revaluation of assets, particularly focusing on gold, RMB assets, stocks, and emerging markets [3][16]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a key variable for global asset pricing, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts in 2026 due to internal liquidity demands rather than fully controlled inflation [5][17]. - The probability of the Fed entering a new expansionary phase is increasing, which may lead to a downward trend in short-term rates while long-term inflation expectations remain elevated, resulting in a steepening yield curve [5][19]. - The correlation between the US dollar index and risk indicators has weakened, indicating a decline in the dollar's safe-haven status during risk events [5][19]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold is transitioning from a traditional safe-haven asset to a core anchor in the new asset pricing system, with expectations of significant price increases due to long-term upward trends and global liquidity indicators [7][21]. - Silver and certain base metals present elastic opportunities, as historical correlations with global liquidity suggest potential for structural market movements [7][21]. - Both gold and silver are viewed as important stabilizers in asset allocation, with no systemic basis for a downturn amid ongoing Fed rate cuts and a weakening dollar [7][21]. Group 3: Emerging Markets Revaluation - The transition to a multipolar order is reflected in unconventional market phenomena, such as the weakening of the dollar's safe-haven property and narrowing emerging market spreads, indicating a need for asset revaluation [9][23]. - Emerging markets have surpassed developed economies in manufacturing output, yet their asset valuations do not fully reflect this shift, suggesting significant long-term revaluation potential [9][23]. - The underrepresentation of the multipolar trend in asset prices presents future investment opportunities [9][10][23]. Group 4: RMB Assets and Stock Market - The RMB is expected to appreciate steadily in 2026, supported by the Fed's rate cuts and rising price levels in China, with potential for over 30% cumulative appreciation in the long term [11][24]. - The stock market outlook is positive, with expectations for A-shares to reach their peak in the second half of the year, driven by economic recovery and price increases [11][15][26].