尹艳林：当前的经济形势与深层次改革

Core Viewpoint - The current macroeconomic situation in China is characterized by both achievements and challenges, necessitating deep reforms alongside supportive policies to ensure stable growth and address existing issues [4][5][6]. Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP growth reached 5.2% in the first three quarters, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year, with an expected annual growth rate of around 5% and a total economic output projected to reach 140 trillion yuan [4][14]. - The consumer goods market saw significant activity, with sales from the "old-for-new" policy exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, including over 11.2 million vehicle upgrades and more than 120 million home appliance upgrades [4][14]. - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises increased by 1.9% from January to October, indicating improved corporate performance [5][14]. Challenges in the Economy - There are notable issues such as insufficient effective demand, with recent months witnessing negative growth in investment and overall weak consumption [6][15]. - Price levels remain low, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fluctuating around zero for two consecutive years and the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing three years of negative growth [6][15]. - Employment and income growth pressures are significant, as highlighted in the "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating a need for focused strategies to enhance job creation and income distribution [6][15]. Policy Recommendations - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and increasing central budget investments to support key projects [7][17]. - A flexible monetary policy is recommended to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, utilizing tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [8][17]. - The government is urged to implement reforms in income distribution, enhance support for low-income groups, and improve the overall income structure to stimulate domestic demand [9][18]. Reform Initiatives - The focus on deep reforms includes addressing barriers in talent mobility between public institutions and enterprises, enhancing the role of innovation in driving economic growth, and improving the financial system to better support technological advancements [10][19]. - The government aims to enhance the synergy between policy support and reform innovation to foster a favorable economic environment and improve market expectations [10][19].