Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-12 12:34Group 1: Federal Reserve and Employment Data - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy in January, with two rate cuts anticipated in the remainder of 2026 due to initial signs of labor market stability [1] - JPMorgan has removed its forecast for a rate cut in 2026, now predicting a 25 basis point increase in Q3 2027 [1] - Societe Generale believes the decline in unemployment and rising wages provide a stronger rationale for the Fed to hold rates steady in January [1] Group 2: Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risks - Goldman Sachs indicates that despite ongoing geopolitical risks, oil prices may continue to decline due to ample supply, predicting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to average $56 and $52 per barrel respectively in 2026 [2] Group 3: Chinese Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities forecasts a "mild re-inflation" in China in 2026, driven by a slight increase in PPI and CPI, with core CPI expected to rise due to various factors including food prices and service costs [3] - CITIC Securities also notes that the balance between external and internal demand will be crucial for the A-share market, with a higher probability of upward movement in early 2026 [4] Group 4: Commodity Prices and Market Trends - CITIC Jinpu predicts that copper prices will continue to rise, with the market not yet at an end, and expects significant support for copper prices despite short-term corrections [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates that investment in the power grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan period may reach 3.8 trillion yuan, focusing on high-quality development and stability in the energy sector [6] Group 5: Currency and Market Dynamics - Huatai Securities expects the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts from January to May, with potential cuts occurring after the new Fed chair takes office [7] - Huachuang Securities highlights the commercialization of brain-computer interfaces, indicating a growing market with significant potential for expansion beyond the medical field [8] - Shenwan Hongyuan predicts that the RMB will appreciate by 2-3% annually over the next few years, with a total appreciation of over 30% in the next decade, benefiting the stock market [10]