首席经济学家共议资产前景： 权益仍是主线，商品轮动深化

Group 1: Market Outlook - The core logic of asset allocation in China is shifting from "total game" to "structural evolution" over the next one to three years, with equity assets remaining the main focus for the medium to long term [1] - The bond market may present phase-specific allocation opportunities due to intertwined expectations of easing and risk aversion [1] Group 2: Institutional Reforms and Asset Revaluation - Continuous institutional reforms in the capital market over the past two years are changing the underlying logic of asset pricing in China, emphasizing investment returns over mere financing [2] - The establishment of a "lower limit" in market fluctuations is crucial for attracting long-term capital, as concerns over extreme drawdowns have eased [2] Group 3: Equity Assets - Equity assets are viewed positively, with technology remaining a key focus, although there is increasing divergence in rhythm and structure among economists [3] - The strategy of "dividend base and technology for elasticity" is recommended as the Chinese economy transitions [3] - Caution is advised regarding valuation and industry realization capabilities, as some segments within technology have become crowded [3] Group 4: Commodity Market - The commodity market is expected to experience both volatility and opportunities, with a shift from financial attributes to supply-demand logic [4] - Gold remains a safe-haven asset, while industrial metals and new energy products are gaining traction, indicating a transition in market dynamics [4] Group 5: Bond Market - The bond market is currently viewed with caution, but there are still potential opportunities, especially if monetary policy shifts unexpectedly [6] - Bonds are seen as a defensive and balancing tool within asset portfolios rather than a core offensive strategy [6] Group 6: Currency and Cross-Border Allocation - The stability and gradual appreciation potential of the RMB are enhancing the international attractiveness of Chinese assets [7] - A shift in resident asset allocation from a "721" model (real estate and fixed income) to a "442" structure (40% stable assets, 40% equity, 20% commodities) is anticipated [7] - Dynamic adjustment capabilities in asset allocation will be crucial in a volatile environment, with recommendations for quarterly rebalancing strategies [7]