“翘尾效应”失灵！ 去年12月乘用车零售量同比下降14%

Group 1 - The domestic passenger car market experienced a retail volume of approximately 2.261 million units in December 2025, marking a 14% year-on-year decline, the first drop in December sales in four years [1] - The decline in December 2025 sales is attributed to policy adjustments regarding vehicle replacement and trade-in subsidies, leading to increased consumer hesitation [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 59.1% in December 2025, an increase of 9.6 percentage points compared to December 2024, indicating a significant growth trend [1][2] Group 2 - In December 2025, the penetration rates for NEVs were 80.9% for domestic brands, 39.1% for luxury brands, and 8.2% for mainstream joint venture brands, showing substantial growth of around 20 percentage points for both domestic and luxury brands compared to January 2025 [2] - The total retail sales of NEVs in 2025 reached 12.809 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with an overall penetration rate of 53.3% [2] - NEV exports approached half of total passenger car exports, with 273,000 NEVs exported in December 2025, representing a 119.8% year-on-year increase [2][3] Group 3 - The overall domestic passenger car market for 2025 recorded a cumulative retail volume of approximately 23.744 million units, reflecting a 3.8% year-on-year growth, the lowest growth rate in the past three years [4] - The decline in sales during the fourth quarter of 2025 is attributed to the temporary delay in consumer purchases due to the phased reduction of trade-in and scrappage policies [4] - The 2026 market is expected to stabilize with early implementation of trade-in policies, potentially leading to a strong start in January 2026 [4][5] Group 4 - The 2026 market is anticipated to show a "U-shaped" trend with overall sales expected to remain flat compared to 2025, while exports are projected to maintain a growth rate of over 10% [5] - The market for high-end NEVs and fuel vehicles, particularly those priced above 200,000 yuan, is expected to perform well in 2026 [5] - Price competition will remain a critical factor in the automotive market in 2026, with cautious expectations for the growth of pure electric vehicle exports [5]