锗市需要走出“虚假繁荣”！

Core Insights - The price of germanium has surged significantly, with projections indicating that the average price for 2025 will reach 15,021.47 CNY/kg and 2,927.82 USD/kg, marking a substantial increase from previous years [1][4][5] - Germanium is considered a strategic metal due to its limited global distribution and critical applications in sectors such as semiconductors and aerospace [2][3] - China's recent export controls and stockpiling initiatives have contributed to the rising prices of germanium, leading to a significant reduction in domestic inventories and increasing shortages overseas [3][4] Price Trends - The average price of germanium in 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 13,610.77 CNY/kg and 15,021.47 CNY/kg, respectively, with export prices reaching 2,065.79 USD/kg and 2,927.82 USD/kg [4][5] - Historical data shows that the peak average price for germanium was 12,174.76 CNY/kg in 2014, indicating that current prices are significantly higher than past peaks [4][5] Demand Dynamics - Despite the high prices, the demand for germanium in traditional sectors such as infrared and fiber optics is declining, raising concerns about the sustainability of current price levels [1][7][8] - The commercial space industry and semiconductor sectors are expected to drive some demand, but the actual growth in consumption remains limited [6][7] - The introduction of alternative materials, such as sulfur-based glass in the infrared market, is further reducing the demand for germanium [8][12] Industry Expansion - The domestic production of germanium is expected to increase significantly, with estimates suggesting a rise to 225 tons in 2025, driven by new production capacities coming online [10][11] - Internationally, other regions are also ramping up germanium production in response to China's export controls, which may lead to an oversupply situation [11] Market Outlook - The current high prices of germanium are not supported by strong demand, leading to a potential "price bubble" scenario where supply may outstrip demand [9][12] - If prices do not stabilize, downstream industries may accelerate their search for alternative materials, which could further diminish the market for germanium [12][13]