Prediction: Bitcoin Will Not Be Worth $1 Million in 5 Years

Core Viewpoint - The prediction that Bitcoin would reach $1 million by 2030 is being reconsidered, with analysts reducing their price targets for 2026 and suggesting that Bitcoin will not achieve this milestone in the next five years [2]. Price Predictions and Growth Rates - Initial predictions for Bitcoin's price of $1 million were based on a starting price of $100,000 in 2025, requiring a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 60% over five years [3]. - Analysts had hoped for Bitcoin to double in value in 2025, which would have reduced the required CAGR to 50% [4]. - However, with Bitcoin trading at approximately $90,000 in January 2026, it now requires a CAGR of 83% over the next four years to reach $1 million by 2030 [5][9]. Historical Performance and Cycles - Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle of boom and bust, with three strong years typically followed by a disastrous year, where it can lose 50% to 75% of its value [7]. - The years 2014, 2018, and 2022 were identified as disaster years, suggesting that 2026 may also be a challenging year for Bitcoin [8]. - Market weakness observed at the end of 2025 could indicate a potential collapse in 2026, similar to previous patterns [8].