彭文生：财政与货币政策协同至关重要

Core Viewpoint - Weak demand is a prominent issue currently, primarily due to the downward financial cycle, compounded by real estate and debt problems [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - A significant portion of disposable income for households and enterprises is being used to repay debts, which is closely related to China's past reliance on indirect financing structures [3] - Debt repayment primarily goes to banks, and during economic downturns, the weak demand for loans leads to difficulties in forming a closed-loop of funds, which is a key issue for current demand insufficiency [3] Group 2: Financing Structure - There is a common belief that China is transitioning from indirect to direct financing, with an increasing share of direct financing and a declining importance of indirect financing; however, this perspective overlooks the critical role of bank credit in providing liquidity and creating money [4] - Even in economies with developed direct financing, the function of money supply through credit remains indispensable [4] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial, as credit is endogenous and banks may lack the willingness to lend during economic downturns due to insufficient demand [4] - Fiscal measures such as tax cuts and transfer payments are exogenous and can effectively stimulate the economy, making fiscal policy the most efficient external tool for macroeconomic regulation [4] - Establishing and improving the social security system should be a key vehicle for fiscal investment to inject exogenous money into the economy, as the current fiscal adjustments have limited effects on income distribution due to an inadequate social security system [4] - Long-term efforts to promote common prosperity and reduce income inequality will also require active fiscal policy, with expansionary fiscal measures needing to be supported by monetary policy to lower debt issuance costs [4]