Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-12 14:50Group 1 - The global market risk appetite continues to rise, benefiting equity assets. Tactical recommendations include overweighting A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while underweighting US Treasuries and oil [1][23]. - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight in A/H shares. The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to lead to further expansion of the broad deficit and more proactive economic policies. The Federal Reserve's expected rate cut in December and the stable appreciation of the RMB provide favorable conditions for monetary easing in early 2026 [2][10][11]. - The "Goldilocks" scenario is emerging, which is favorable for US stock performance. The resilience of the US economy, decreasing inflationary pressures, and ongoing investor focus on AI trends are expected to support a moderate increase in market risk appetite and corporate earnings expectations [2][10][11]. Group 2 - Gold is recommended for overweighting due to its strong resilience and safe-haven attributes amid rising geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing central bank purchases. Despite increased volatility from speculative trading, gold prices are expected to maintain strong resilience in the context of fluctuating global risk assets [3][12][25]. - Short-term oil market dynamics may intensify, suggesting an underweight in oil. Investor expectations regarding oil supply and demand are relatively consistent, and OPEC+ production adjustments are expected to be moderate. Geopolitical events in South America may increase the US's influence on global oil prices, with policies favoring lower oil prices anticipated [3][12][25]. Group 3 - Recent US labor market data shows a mild cooling, with the unemployment rate at 4.4%, below expectations. Non-farm payrolls for December were 50,000, also below expectations, while initial jobless claims were 208,000, slightly better than expected [7][30]. - The resilience of the US economy is indicated by the ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 54.4, above expectations, while the manufacturing PMI was slightly below expectations at 47.9. The Michigan consumer sentiment index for January was 54.0, also above expectations [7][30].