总统对美联储及利率的掌控力究竟有多大？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the federal funds rate multiple times in 2025, amidst economic uncertainties and pressure from President Trump for further rate cuts [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve will maintain a stable interest rate for most of 2025, following a series of rate cuts at the end of 2024 and additional cuts in September, October, and December 2025 [1][10]. - Federal Reserve officials emphasize the need for patience and clarity in economic data before making any rate adjustments [1][10]. Group 2: Presidential Influence - President Trump has publicly opposed the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain stable interest rates and has pressured for further cuts in 2025 [1][10]. - Trump has criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, labeling him as "stubborn" and suggesting his removal from office [1][10]. - In August 2025, Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which critics argue may be illegal [1][10][7]. Group 3: Legal and Investigative Context - On January 11, Powell stated that a criminal investigation had been initiated against the Federal Reserve, related to his testimony about renovations at the Washington headquarters [1][11]. - Powell indicated that the criminal investigation and threats of charges should be viewed in the context of ongoing pressure from the Trump administration regarding interest rates [11]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve operates independently of direct presidential control, although the president has the authority to appoint and dismiss key officials [4][5]. - The president can nominate members of the Federal Reserve Board, who serve on the Federal Open Market Committee, but cannot dismiss them without just cause [6][15]. - Despite the Federal Reserve's design for independence, public statements from the president can influence market expectations and indirectly affect policy decisions [9][18].