Should you Buy, Sell or Hold Applied Digital Stock Post Q2 earnings?

Core Insights - Applied Digital (APLD) shares surged 18% after the release of its Q2 fiscal 2026 results, driven by a 250% year-over-year revenue growth to $126.6 million, primarily from HPC tenant fit-out services and lease revenue from CoreWeave [1][5][7] - Despite revenue growth, APLD reported a loss of 11 cents per share, which, although an improvement from a loss of 61 cents a year ago, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 22.22% [1][7][14] Stock Performance - APLD shares have appreciated 295.8% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Finance sector's 8.6% increase and the Financial – Miscellaneous Services industry's 15.9% decline [2] - The stock has outperformed peers such as Riot Platforms (22.5% increase) and Equinix (5.3% increase) during the same period, reflecting rising investor confidence in APLD's transition to a contracted hyperscale data center operator [2] Financial Performance - APLD's Q2 results indicate a shift from construction to revenue generation, with the first 100-megawatt building at Polaris Forge 1 completed on schedule [5] - The Data Center Hosting segment generated $16 million in operating profit on $130.8 million of assets, providing a stable earnings base as larger HPC facilities ramp up [5] Growth Prospects - APLD has secured a second investment-grade hyperscaler at Polaris Forge 2, reducing customer concentration risk and validating its platform beyond the CoreWeave relationship [6] - The company has 600 megawatts under contract across Polaris Forge 1 and 2, representing approximately $16 billion in prospective lease revenues, with expectations for revenue growth as additional capacity comes online [6][8] Balance Sheet Strength - APLD concluded Q2 with over $2.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, alongside $2.6 billion in debt, providing ample liquidity for capital-intensive expansion [8] - The financing framework with Macquarie Asset Management allows access to up to $4.1 billion in preferred equity capital, supporting large-scale data center projects while limiting equity dilution [8][9] Valuation Concerns - APLD stock is considered overvalued, trading at 24.08x forward 12-month sales, significantly above the sector multiple of 9.08x and the industry average of 3.36x [10] - The premium valuation assumes flawless execution, and any delays in construction or financing could compress valuation multiples toward industry norms [10][11] Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for APLD's Q3 fiscal 2026 loss is pegged at 9 cents per share, widened by 2 cents over the past 30 days, indicating potential challenges ahead [14] - APLD's robust balance sheet and contracted lease revenues support long-term visibility, but the premium valuation and downward estimate revisions present risks [15]