农业农村部发布1月中国农产品供需形势分析

Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China released the January agricultural product supply and demand analysis, covering corn, soybeans, cotton, edible vegetable oil, and sugar [1] Corn - For the 2025/26 season, China's corn production data has been adjusted, with the planting area set at 44,961 thousand hectares, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year; the yield per hectare adjusted to 6,700 kg, up 1.6% year-on-year; and total production adjusted to 30,124 million tons, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year, reaching a historical high [2] - The current market for corn is active due to the traditional peak selling season, with sales progressing faster than last year and lower inventory levels among deep processing enterprises, indicating strong price support [2] Soybeans - The 2025/26 soybean production forecast aligns closely with the National Bureau of Statistics data, with minor adjustments made this month. The planting area is set at 10,255 thousand hectares, down 0.6% year-on-year; yield per hectare adjusted to 2,039 kg, up 1.9% year-on-year; and total production at 2,091 million tons, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year [3] - Domestic grain reserves are decreasing, leading to a strong market sentiment among traders, while high-protein soybean supplies are tight, prompting active procurement by processing enterprises [3] Cotton - The 2025/26 cotton production forecast has been adjusted, with the planting area set at 2,979 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year; yield per hectare adjusted to 2,229 kg, up 2.6% year-on-year; and total production adjusted to 6.64 million tons, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year [4] - The sales pace of cotton has accelerated due to pre-Spring Festival inventory replenishment by textile enterprises, with the national cotton processing rate at 94.5% as of January 8, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, and the sales rate at 55.6%, up 24.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] Edible Vegetable Oil - The 2025/26 edible vegetable oil production forecast has been increased by 50,000 tons to 3,078 million tons, primarily due to increased production of cottonseed oil [5] - The import and consumption forecasts for edible vegetable oil remain unchanged from the previous month, with favorable weather conditions in major rapeseed production areas aiding growth [5] Sugar - The 2025/26 sugar supply and demand forecast remains consistent with last month, with northern beet sugar production concluding and southern cane sugar production peaking, leading to ample market supply [6] - As of the end of December, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production reached 1.94 million tons, with a sales rate of 45.56%, down 13.76 percentage points year-on-year; Yunnan's cumulative sugar production was 390,000 tons, with a sales rate of 71.72%, down 9.98 percentage points year-on-year [6]