2025年12月份新增信贷、社融或同比少增

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for December 2025 is expected to show a year-on-year decrease in new RMB loans and social financing, reflecting a trend of moderate monetary policy and structural optimization in credit [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Predictions - In December 2024, new RMB loans amounted to 990 billion yuan, and new social financing reached 2.86 trillion yuan [2]. - Predictions for December 2025 include new RMB loans ranging from 800 billion to 1 trillion yuan, with social financing expected to be between 2 trillion and 2.2 trillion yuan [2][3]. - The M2 growth rate is anticipated to decline to 7.9% by the end of December 2025, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [2][3]. Group 2: Analysis and Insights - Analysts suggest that while a decrease in new loans and social financing is expected, it is important to analyze financial data over a longer time frame rather than focusing on individual monthly fluctuations [3]. - As of November 2025, the total RMB loan balance reached 271 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale exceeded 440 trillion yuan [3]. - The People's Bank of China indicates that a natural decline in financial growth rates aligns with the transition of the economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The gradual slowdown in credit growth is linked to the economic structural transformation, which is leading to a shift in credit demand and a positive substitution by direct financing [4]. - Future evaluations of financial support should focus on the effectiveness of interest rate reductions and the intensity of financial support for key areas such as technological innovation, green development, and small and medium-sized enterprises [4].