碳酸锂期货突破15万元大关 机构提示追高风险

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged significantly due to changes in export policy expectations and improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with the main contract reaching a new high of 156,060 yuan/ton on January 12, marking a 9% increase for the day [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - On January 12, the lithium carbonate futures main contract hit the daily limit, breaking through the 150,000 yuan/ton mark, with a cumulative increase of over 160% since the low point in June 2025 [2][3]. - The surge in prices is primarily driven by market reactions to adjustments in export tax rebate policies for lithium battery products, which are expected to lead to a concentrated "export rush" [2][3]. - The current low inventory levels across the supply chain are providing significant support for prices, as downstream companies are adjusting their production and procurement strategies in anticipation of policy changes [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong, driven by steady growth in electric vehicle sales and expanding demand in the energy storage sector, which is seen as a potential variable for exceeding expectations [3][4]. - The supply side is facing constraints, with new supply primarily relying on leading companies' lithium mining capacity, which is hindered by long construction cycles and stricter environmental regulations [4]. - Institutions believe that the lithium industry is transitioning from a phase of oversupply to a "tight balance" state, with 2026 potentially being a pivotal year for supply-demand relationships [4]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Sentiment - Despite the overall positive market sentiment, there are warnings about potential supply-side elasticity and the risks of price volatility due to excessive speculative behavior [5][6]. - Regulatory measures have been implemented to curb excessive speculation, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange taking action against clients exceeding trading limits on lithium carbonate contracts [5][6].