碳酸锂价格突破15万元/吨 锂电池“抢货潮”预期高涨 产业景气度持续攀升

Core Viewpoint - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate continues to surge, driven by supply-demand dynamics and changes in export tax policies, leading to increased enthusiasm for inventory procurement among downstream battery manufacturers [3][5][9]. Group 1: Price Trends - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate reached a record high of 156,060 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 9% [3]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 153,400 yuan per ton, up by 13,800 yuan from the previous trading day [3]. - In the first five trading days of 2026, the cumulative increase in lithium carbonate prices reached 20.06% [4]. Group 2: Export Tax Policy Impact - The adjustment of export tax rates for battery products, effective from April 1, 2026, is expected to drive battery manufacturers to stock up in advance, thereby increasing demand for lithium carbonate [5][10]. - The export tax rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and will be completely eliminated by January 1, 2027 [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a "tight balance" due to high demand from the energy storage sector, with global demand projected to reach 202,000 tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 32% [9]. - The supply side is constrained as previous low lithium prices have slowed the progress of some lithium mining projects, limiting the growth of lithium salt production capacity [10]. Group 4: Industry Confidence and Innovations - Recent breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology have bolstered confidence in the lithium industry, with a new method achieving over 98% lithium recovery from brine [6]. - The enthusiasm for mergers and acquisitions in the lithium sector is rising, reflecting optimism about the future growth potential of the renewable energy industry [7]. Group 5: Inventory and Production Outlook - As of January 8, domestic lithium carbonate inventory was approximately 110,000 tons, with a slight increase from the previous week, primarily concentrated in trading and smelting sectors [11]. - Companies are optimistic about their performance in the first quarter, with many expecting lithium carbonate prices to exceed 200,000 yuan per ton in the near future [11].