PNC Financial's Q4 Earnings on the Deck: Here's What to Expect

Core Viewpoint - PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. is expected to report improved fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on January 16, driven by higher revenues and earnings year-over-year [1][11]. Financial Performance - In Q3, PNC's earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, supported by increased net interest income (NII) and fee income, despite higher expenses acting as a headwind [2]. - The company has a strong earnings surprise history, with an average surprise of 8.26% over the last four quarters [2]. Net Interest Income (NII) - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in Q4 are anticipated to ease funding costs, positively impacting PNC's NII, which is expected to rise approximately 1.5% sequentially [3][11]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is $3.71 billion, reflecting a sequential increase of nearly 1.7% [4]. Loan and Deposit Activity - Average loans are projected to remain stable or increase by 1% sequentially in Q4 2025, aligning with company guidance [5]. - Demand for various loan types, including commercial and industrial, real estate, and consumer loans, has been solid in the early part of the quarter [4]. Non-Interest Revenues - Mortgage-related revenues are expected to face pressure due to a decline in refinancing activity, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for residential and commercial mortgage revenues at $139.8 million, indicating a 13.2% sequential decline [6][7]. - Asset management and brokerage income is projected to benefit from increased client engagement, with a consensus estimate of $410.5 million, reflecting a 1.61% sequential rise [8][9]. Capital Markets and Advisory Revenues - Global mergers and acquisitions activity has strengthened, likely improving PNC's capital markets and advisory revenues, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $427.91 million, indicating a nearly 1% sequential decline [10][12]. Expenses and Asset Quality - Non-interest expenses are expected to rise by 1%–2% sequentially, driven by investments in technology and digitalization, with an estimate of $3.52 billion [13][14]. - Management anticipates net charge-offs to be between $200 million and $225 million, up from $179 million in Q3 2025, indicating a cautious approach to asset quality [14][15]. Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 earnings per share has been revised upward to $4.23, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.2% [17]. - Total revenues are expected to show a 7.1% year-over-year increase, with projections for Q4 revenues at $5.96 billion [17]. 2025 Outlook - For the full year 2025, PNC anticipates a 6.5% year-over-year increase in NII and a 1% rise in average loans to $319.8 billion [18]. - Non-interest income is expected to grow by 4%–5% year-over-year from $8.1 billion reported in 2024, with total revenue projected to rise 6% year-over-year from $21.6 billion [19]. Recent Developments - PNC recently completed the acquisition of FirstBank Holding Company, adding approximately $26.8 billion in assets and significantly expanding its branch network in Colorado and Arizona [20][21].