Inflows, AUM Growth Likely to Support BlackRock's Q4 Earnings

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock is expected to report improved fourth-quarter and 2025 results on January 15, with year-over-year growth in revenues and earnings anticipated [1][9]. Group 1: Earnings and AUM Performance - BlackRock's third-quarter 2025 earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, benefiting from increased revenues and a record high in assets under management (AUM) of $13.46 trillion, driven by net inflows [1][2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fourth-quarter AUM is projected at $13.99 trillion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 21.1%, while the company's own estimate is $14.06 trillion [4]. - The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is $12.41 per share, indicating a 4% increase from the previous year, while the estimate for 2025 earnings is $47.37, suggesting an 8.6% year-over-year growth [12]. Group 2: Revenue Components - BlackRock is expected to see growth in investment advisory, administration fees, and securities-lending revenues, with the consensus estimate for total revenues at $5.30 billion, representing a 19.9% year-over-year rise [5]. - The consensus estimate for investment advisory performance fees is $478 million, indicating a 6% year-over-year increase, while distribution fees are estimated at $372 million, reflecting a 15.5% rise [6]. - Technology services revenues are projected at $529 million, implying a 23.6% year-over-year increase, and advisory and other revenues are estimated at $65 million, indicating a 10.2% rise [7]. Group 3: Expenses and Restructuring - BlackRock's total expenses are expected to rise to $4.40 billion in the fourth quarter, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 22.1, driven by restructuring initiatives and inorganic expansion efforts [8][10]. - The company anticipates a low-teen percentage increase in core general and administrative expenses for 2025, primarily due to the onboarding of Global Infrastructure Partners, Preqin, and HPS [10]. Group 4: Market Position and Future Outlook - BlackRock maintains a strong position in the ETF market, with continued investments in U.S. iShare core ETFs, contributing to consistent AUM growth [3]. - The approval and listing of spot Bitcoin and ether ETFs, along with acquisitions, are expected to further enhance AUM growth [4].