诺德基金罗世锋：A股行情或由估值修复向基本面驱动转变

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to show significant structural differentiation in 2025, reflecting profound changes in industry prosperity and China's economic structure. The trend of economic transformation and upgrading is anticipated to deepen in 2026, potentially driving improvements in corporate profitability and supporting market upward momentum [1][2]. Group 1: Market Structure and Performance - In 2025, sectors such as technology, high-end manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals are expected to perform strongly, while consumer sectors may lag. The market capitalization of technology manufacturing sectors like electronics, power equipment, machinery, and military industry has increased by nearly 5 percentage points since the beginning of the year, indicating a shift in market structure [1]. - The changes in market structure reflect varying industry prosperity and suggest that technology manufacturing may become a driving force in China's economy [1]. Group 2: Corporate Profitability and Market Drivers - Corporate profitability, as indicated by the return on equity (ROE), has stabilized for four consecutive quarters, with a slight improvement noted in Q3 2025. This improvement in profitability is expected to provide new momentum for the stock market [2]. - The primary factor driving the A-share market upward in 2025 is valuation enhancement, while in 2026, the market's upward momentum is likely to shift from valuation recovery to being driven by fundamentals [2]. Group 3: Industry Focus and Future Trends - In 2026, the A-share market is expected to continue its structural differentiation, with a focus on technology, advanced manufacturing, domestic consumption, and overseas industrial chains amid economic transformation [2]. - The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, particularly those related to artificial intelligence, are currently in a phase of significant capital expenditure to enhance large model applications. China is deeply involved in various segments of the AI industry chain and holds a competitive advantage in key areas such as large models and computing power [2]. - The consumer sector, particularly food and beverage, is gradually showing long-term investment appeal after nearly five years of adjustment, with expectations for related policy implementations to support domestic demand [2]. - The overseas industrial chain is also seen as a sector with long-term potential, with exports performing well in 2025, showcasing China's strong competitive edge due to its comprehensive industrial system and engineering talent [3].