碳酸锂价格突破15万元/吨 锂电池"抢货潮"预期高涨 产业景气度持续攀升

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate continues to surge, driven by changes in export tax policies and strong demand from the battery sector, leading to a "tight balance" in the market [1] Group 1: Price Trends - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate surged by 9%, closing at 156,060 yuan/ton, with the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reported at 153,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 13,800 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The cumulative increase in the main contract for lithium carbonate over five trading days reached 20.06% [1] - The price of lithium carbonate has risen from 80,000 yuan to over 150,000 yuan within two months, indicating a strong demand-supply relationship [1] Group 2: Export Tax Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the complete cancellation of the rebate by January 1, 2027 [1] - Battery manufacturers are expected to accelerate procurement plans to avoid rising costs, leading to increased demand for lithium carbonate [1] Group 3: Technological Advancements - A research team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences has achieved breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology, enhancing the efficiency of lithium recovery from brine [1] - The new extraction technology has been successfully applied in a demonstration line capable of producing battery-grade lithium carbonate with a recovery rate exceeding 98% [1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate is projected to reach 202,000 tons in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 32%, as the demand from the energy storage sector is expected to surpass that from the power battery sector for the first time [1] - The supply side is constrained due to previous low lithium prices, which slowed the progress of some lithium mining projects, while domestic production is expected to increase from salt lakes and the resumption of lithium mica mining in Jiangxi [1] Group 5: Industry Sentiment - The rising prices and strong demand have led to increased confidence in the lithium industry, with many companies expecting significant profit growth [1] - Nearly 50% of surveyed companies believe that the price of lithium carbonate could reach 200,000 yuan per ton, with 30% anticipating prices could rise to 250,000 yuan or more [1]