油价盘后继续大幅冲高，特朗普态度让伊朗局势再次升温

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the actions of the Trump administration regarding Venezuela and Iran, which have injected political risks into the global oil market [5][6][22]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices fluctuated significantly, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $59.50 per barrel, up 0.64%, and Brent crude oil futures at $63.87 per barrel, up 0.84% [7][23]. - The market's focus has shifted from Venezuela to the unrest in Iran, with concerns about potential U.S. military intervention causing oil prices to rise again after an initial drop [5][21]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The Trump administration's interventions in Venezuela have increased U.S. control over key oil resources, creating political uncertainty that affects global oil markets [6][22]. - The situation in Iran remains a significant risk, with the potential for military action by the U.S. contributing to market volatility [5][6][22]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite geopolitical tensions, the actual supply of oil remains adequate, with the physical market in the Middle East showing weakness [6][22]. - The Brent crude oil month spread has recently rebounded, indicating that geopolitical factors are adding a risk premium to oil prices [6][22]. Group 4: Developments in Venezuela - Global commodity traders Vitol and Trafigura have gained an early advantage in controlling Venezuelan oil, surpassing U.S. oil giants who are hesitant due to legal risks [24][25]. - The U.S. government is collaborating with these traders to expedite the flow of Venezuelan oil exports, which is crucial for funding the interim government [24][25]. Group 5: Iranian Situation - Iran claims to have regained control over domestic unrest, which has eased short-term supply concerns, but the geopolitical situation remains fluid [27][28]. - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on any country engaging in business with Iran, further complicating the geopolitical landscape [26][27].