任泽平：A股此轮大牛市十年一遇

Core Viewpoint - A new bull market has begun since September 24, 2024, driven by significant policy easing, abundant liquidity, and a new wave of technological revolution, termed the "Confidence Bull" [2][31][34]. Group 1: Characteristics of the Bull Market - This bull market is described as a once-in-a-decade event, comparable to previous major bull markets in 2004-2007 and 2014-2015, with the current market driven by policy easing and technological advancements [4][34]. - The bull market has already seen substantial gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 45.5% and the ChiNext Index by 109.8% from September 24, 2024, to January 12, 2026 [7][35]. - Trading volume has surged from a few hundred billion before September 2024 to over 3 trillion recently, indicating a significant increase in market activity [9][37]. Group 2: Drivers of the Bull Market - The bull market is supported by three main drivers: continuous policy easing, a new technological revolution, and abundant liquidity, creating a combination of policy, technology, and liquidity-driven confidence [11][37]. - Policy easing has included interest rate cuts, relaxed housing market restrictions, and substantial fiscal measures, which have significantly boosted market risk appetite [38]. - The technological revolution is characterized by advancements in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to a strong performance in high-risk growth sectors [12][38]. Group 3: Historical Missions of the Bull Market - The bull market is expected to support the development of new productive forces, assist in major power competition, and repair household balance sheets, highlighting its strategic importance [15][41]. - It aims to provide capital market support for new economy sectors, which often struggle to secure financing through traditional banking systems [41]. - The bull market is also seen as a means to counteract the negative wealth effects from the real estate market downturn, with the A-share market's value increasing from under 70 trillion to over 100 trillion, creating a wealth effect of over 30 trillion [16][42]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the bull market will depend on continued macroeconomic policy easing, including further interest rate cuts and fiscal measures to stimulate demand [44]. - There is a need for effective regulation of leverage in the market to ensure healthy development, given the characteristics of the A-share market, which is primarily retail investor-driven [45][46]. - The potential for a long-term bull market could significantly impact the recovery of consumer spending and the real estate market, particularly in major cities [42][44].