华尔街警报：特朗普与美联储“开战”或推高利率，市场面临失控风险

Core Viewpoint - The pressure exerted by Trump on the Federal Reserve threatens its independence, which contradicts his goal of lowering interest rates, injecting significant new risks into the financial markets [1][4][11]. Group 1: Impact on Financial Markets - Investment managers from major bond firms warn that Trump's attacks on the Fed's independence could undermine its credibility in combating inflation, leading to higher U.S. Treasury yields and increased costs for mortgages and corporate loans [1][4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has remained around 4.2%, despite the Fed resuming rate cuts, which has become a source of frustration for Trump [4][12]. - The market's reaction indicates a belief that legal and political processes are strong enough to protect the Fed from government pressure, with only a slight increase in long-term yields observed [13][15]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Fed Independence - Trump's attempts to pressure the Fed include urging more aggressive rate cuts and attempting to dismiss a Fed governor, reflecting a broader strategy to influence monetary policy [12][14]. - The recent threats against Fed Chair Jerome Powell have been viewed as a potential retaliation against the Fed's rate decisions, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [4][14]. - Analysts suggest that any perceived threat to the Fed's independence could lead to unexpected consequences, including higher interest rates in the long run [16][17]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - Despite the political tensions, investors seem to welcome Powell's commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence, which is seen as crucial for financial stability [13][14]. - Market participants continue to expect only two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, indicating a stable outlook despite the political pressures [14]. - The bond market's resilience suggests that buyers are willing to engage at appropriate levels, viewing slight yield increases as constructive rather than alarming [14].