智通财经网·2026-01-13 00:01Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the wealth effect from the stock market is significantly contributing to the recovery of high-end consumption in China, with a gradual revival observed since Q3 2025 [1][2] - High net worth individuals are a major source supporting high-end consumption, with the stock market's wealth effect being more pronounced than the real estate market in recent years [2] - The total market capitalization of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is projected to reach 123 trillion yuan and 48 trillion HKD by the end of 2025, reflecting a net increase of 24.5 trillion yuan and 12.7 trillion HKD from the end of 2024 [2] Group 2 - Three validation points for the ongoing recovery of high-end consumption include: 1) International luxury brands showing recovery in Q2 2025, with positive revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific region by Q3 2025 [2] 2) High-end retail properties in China beginning to recover from late 2024 into 2025, with improved occupancy rates and sales [2] 3) The global luxury market entering a recovery phase starting Q3 2025 [2] - The fastest-growing segments in the luxury market from 2019 to 2025E include luxury cruises, private jets, high-end dining, personal luxury goods, luxury hotels, and high-end home goods, with jewelry expected to perform best in 2025 [3] - The recovery timing and strength of different high-end consumption categories are influenced by factors such as the proportion of VIC customers, the order of consumption based on wealth increase, supply elasticity, and consumption trends [3]