中信证券：光伏出口退税将取消，行业有望迈入高质量发展

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have decided to cancel the export VAT refund for photovoltaic and other products starting from April 1, 2026, which will lead to increased export costs and decreased profitability for photovoltaic and energy storage companies in the short term [1] Group 1: Short-term Impact - Photovoltaic and energy storage companies are expected to face direct increases in export costs and pressure on profitability due to the cancellation of the export VAT refund [1] - It is anticipated that there will be a rapid increase in the shipment volume of photovoltaic modules during the window period, but SMM estimates that the export volume of photovoltaic modules may decline by 5%-10% after the VAT refund is implemented [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The previous "involution" situation in the photovoltaic industry, characterized by low-price and disorderly competition, is expected to ease, leading to a focus on technological innovation and brand building [1] - The pace of phasing out outdated production capacity is expected to accelerate, allowing leading companies to continue increasing their market share [1] - The photovoltaic industry is anticipated to enter a new stage of high-quality development, with investment opportunities in photovoltaic and energy storage sectors being recommended [1]