中信证券：光伏出口退税将取消 行业有望迈入高质量发展

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have decided to cancel the export VAT refund for photovoltaic and related products starting from April 1, 2026, which will increase export costs and pressure profitability for solar and energy storage companies in the short term [1] Group 1: Short-term Impact - Photovoltaic and energy storage companies are expected to face increased export costs and declining profitability due to the cancellation of the export VAT refund [1] - A rapid increase in photovoltaic module shipments is anticipated in the short term, with SMM estimating a potential decline of 5%-10% in photovoltaic module export volume after the VAT refund is removed [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The cancellation of the VAT refund may alleviate the "involution" situation caused by low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, leading to a focus on technological innovation and brand building [1] - The pace of phasing out outdated production capacity is expected to accelerate, allowing leading companies to increase their market share [1] - The photovoltaic industry is projected to enter a new phase of high-quality development, with investment opportunities in photovoltaic and energy storage sectors being recommended [1]