美联储主席遭刑事调查，货币政策不确定性增加

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by U.S. federal prosecutors threatens the independence of the Federal Reserve and adds uncertainty to its monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1: Investigation and Implications - Federal prosecutors issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve regarding Powell's testimony in June 2025, which involved the renovation of the Fed's office building [1] - Powell stated that the criminal investigation undermines the Fed's independence in setting interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions, rather than political pressure [1] - The investigation reflects ongoing tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve, particularly between President Trump and Powell [1][2] Group 2: Powell's Tenure and Political Pressure - Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends in May 2026, but his term as a Fed governor lasts until 2028 [2] - If Powell is found guilty, Trump could legally remove him from office, creating uncertainty in Powell's role and potentially leading to a leadership vacuum at the Fed [2] - Trump has consistently urged the Fed to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, expressing dissatisfaction with Powell's performance [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [3] - The decision saw significant dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee, with 9 out of 12 members supporting the rate cut, indicating internal divisions [3] - Economic indicators suggest a weak job market and persistent inflation, which may lead the Fed to be cautious in further easing monetary policy in 2026 [3]