智通财经网·2026-01-13 00:34Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 2026 is expected to increase export costs and reduce profitability for solar and energy storage companies in the short term, while potentially leading to a higher quality development phase in the long term [1][2][3]. Short-term Impact - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate will directly increase the costs for photovoltaic component exporters, with leading companies expected to lose 1-2 billion yuan in rebates annually, resulting in a profit reduction of 46-51 yuan per 210R photovoltaic component [2]. - There is an anticipated surge in overseas orders during the window period before the rebate cancellation, which is expected to drive short-term industry demand growth [2]. Long-term Impact - The removal of the export VAT rebate is projected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity, with a shift towards brand building and technological innovation becoming the main focus [3]. - It is estimated that the export volume of photovoltaic components may decline by 5%-10% after the rebate cancellation, leading to increased cash flow pressure on companies, particularly affecting smaller enterprises [3]. - The global prices of photovoltaic components are expected to rise, diminishing the cost advantage of Chinese manufacturers, which will favor leading companies with strong brand and technology advantages [3]. Energy Storage Insights - The impact on profits from the cancellation of the export VAT rebate for energy storage is expected to be limited, with leading companies likely facing minimal challenges in price transmission [4]. - The global energy storage market is projected to see significant growth, with new installations expected to reach 255 GWh in 2025, 407 GWh in 2026, and 538 GWh in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 45.3% [4]. Investment Strategy - The company recommends focusing on three main investment lines within the photovoltaic industry: 1. Companies benefiting from high demand in overseas markets and domestic demand, particularly in regions like Australia and Ukraine [5]. 2. Leading companies across the industry chain that are expected to maintain their advantages due to scale and technology, as outdated production capacity is cleared [5]. 3. Companies that are early adopters of new technologies, particularly in high-efficiency battery components and perovskite batteries, which are expected to drive the industry's long-term growth [5].