闭眼买入的时代结束了！美股七巨头抱团策略失灵，华尔街喊话：2026 年得 “拆开来买”

Core Insights - The strategy of heavily investing in major US tech stocks has underperformed since 2025, with many companies lagging behind the S&P 500 index for the first time since the Fed began raising interest rates in 2022 [1] - The "Seven Giants" index rose by 25% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's 16% increase, but this was largely driven by Google and Nvidia [1] - Analysts predict that as tech giants' profit growth slows and skepticism about AI investments increases, this trend of divergence will continue into 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The current market is no longer characterized by a "one-size-fits-all" approach, emphasizing the importance of stock selection within the tech sector [1] - Since the bull market began in October 2022, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, and Apple have contributed over one-third of the S&P 500's gains, but investor enthusiasm for tech giants is waning as funds shift to other S&P 500 components [4] Group 2: Earnings Projections - The expected profit growth for the "Seven Giants" in 2026 is around 18%, the slowest since 2022, compared to 13% for the other 493 S&P 500 components [5] - The current expected P/E ratio for the "Seven Giants" is 29, down from over 40 at the beginning of the decade, while the S&P 500's expected P/E is 22 [5] Group 3: Individual Company Analysis - Nvidia: Facing increased competition and concerns about customer spending sustainability, Nvidia's stock has risen 1165% since late 2022 but has dropped 11% since its peak in October 2022. Analysts remain optimistic, with 76 out of 82 rating it as a "buy" [6] - Microsoft: Expected to spend nearly $100 billion on capital expenditures in the fiscal year ending June 2026, with a further increase to $116 billion anticipated. The company struggles to convert AI investments into tangible returns [9] - Apple: Initially faced pressure due to a conservative AI strategy, but later became favored for avoiding high AI investment risks, with a projected revenue growth of 9% for the fiscal year ending September 2026 [10] - Google: Has regained market confidence with its Gemini AI model and is expected to see a modest stock price increase of 3.9% in 2026, despite a significant rise of over 65% in 2025 [11] - Amazon: After being the worst performer among the giants, Amazon's stock rebounded in early 2026, driven by strong growth in its AWS cloud business [12] - Meta: Faces skepticism regarding its heavy AI investments, with a significant increase in capital expenditures leading to a stock price drop. The company must demonstrate that its investments are driving profit growth [13] - Tesla: After a poor performance in the first half of 2025, Tesla's stock surged over 40% in the second half, but analysts remain pessimistic about its stock price outlook for 2026, predicting a 9.1% decline [14]