人民币兑美元中间价报7.0103，上调5点

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the short term, with a strong probability of maintaining current rates, as indicated by recent statements from officials and market expectations [4][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 95%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 5% [3][9]. - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 26%, with a 72.8% chance of rates remaining unchanged [3][9]. - The likelihood of a 50 basis point cut by March is minimal at 1.2% [3][9]. Group 2: Economic Projections by Federal Reserve Officials - New York Fed President Williams suggests that the U.S. economy will remain healthy through 2026, indicating no immediate need for rate cuts [4][10]. - He states that current monetary policy is well-positioned to support labor market stability and help bring inflation back to the 2% target [4][10]. - Williams projects GDP growth for the year to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, with unemployment rates stabilizing and expected to decline in subsequent years [4][10]. - Inflation is anticipated to peak between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to 2% by 2027 [4][10].