光大期货：1月13日能源化工日报

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced fluctuations with WTI February contract closing at $59.50 per barrel, up $0.38, a 0.64% increase, while Brent March contract closed at $63.87 per barrel, up $0.53, a 0.84% increase [2][16] - Concerns over Iran potentially reducing exports amid significant anti-government protests countered expectations of increased supply from Venezuela, another sanctioned OPEC member [2][16] - The U.S. President Trump indicated that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff, contributing to ongoing geopolitical risk pricing in the market [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (FU2603) fell by 1.32% to 2461 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) rose by 0.93% to 3026 yuan/ton [3][17] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market remains stable, while the high-sulfur market shows slight support due to recovering demand for marine fuel oil [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract (BU2602) decreased by 0.25% to 3157 yuan/ton, with market dynamics influenced by tightening raw material supply and declining refinery output [5][18] - The asphalt market is expected to navigate between weak demand realities and strong cost expectations, with a focus on future raw material supply [5][18] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures (RU2605) rose by 100 yuan/ton to 16130 yuan/ton, with various rubber grades showing price increases [6][19] - The export volume of natural rubber from Côte d'Ivoire is projected to reach 1.98 million tons in 2025, a 13.4% increase from 2024 [6][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5142 yuan/ton, up 0.67%, while EG2605 closed at 3880 yuan/ton, up 0.36% [7][20] - PX futures closed at 7308 yuan/ton, up 0.97%, with the market facing geopolitical risks that may elevate oil price premiums [7][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2260 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $265 to $269 per ton [8][22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend, but tensions in Iran may increase volatility [8][22] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices in East China ranged from 6350 to 6500 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9][23] - Supply is expected to see slight reductions due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover slightly before the Lunar New Year [9][23] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed slight adjustments, with the market remaining under pressure from high supply and slowing domestic demand [10][24] - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with expectations of price stabilization at lower levels [10][24] Urea - Urea futures prices remained stable, with the main contract closing at 1783 yuan/ton, while spot prices in Shandong and Henan decreased slightly [11][25] - The market is experiencing cautious demand, with production rates showing significant regional disparities [11][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 1.31%, with stable pricing from manufacturers [12][27] - The market faces a balance between basic supply and external factors, with expectations of pressure as the Lunar New Year approaches [12][27] Glass - Glass futures prices fluctuated, with the main contract closing at 1143 yuan/ton, while spot prices increased to an average of 1096 yuan/ton [13][28] - The market is supported by low supply and high transaction volumes, although demand may decline as the holiday approaches [13][28]